by

Tim Ferriss

Sebastian Mallaby, Biographer of Demis Hassabis — Lessons from 100+ AI Insiders on The Race to Superintelligence, The Religion of AI, and Spotting Breakthroughs Early (#870)

Leave a comment

Topics:

Sebastian Mallaby (@scmallaby) is the Paul A. Volcker senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, a two-time Pulitzer Prize finalist, and the author of six books, including More Money Than God, The Power Law, The Man Who Knew, and The World’s Banker. 

His latest book is The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence.

Please enjoy!

This episode is brought to you by:

Listen onSpotify
Listen onApple Podcasts
Listen onOvercast
Sebastian Mallaby, Biographer of Demis Hassabis — Lessons from 100+ AI Insiders on The Race to Superintelligence, The Religion of AI, and Spotting Breakthroughs Early

Additional podcast platforms

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Castbox, YouTube Music, Amazon Music, Audible, or on your favorite podcast platform.

Transcripts

Show Notes

  • Connect with Sebastian Mallaby:

X

Books

Recommended Reading, Watching, & Listening

Relevant Tim Ferriss Show Episodes

Films

People

Companies & Organizations

Institutions

AI Systems & Tools

Concepts

Timestamps

  • [00:00:00] Start.
  • [00:02:11] The twinkly eyed polymath who became Sebastian’s next book.
  • [00:06:55] Picking the next book project the way a great VC picks a startup.
  • [00:09:41] Why God keeps crashing the superintelligence party.
  • [00:11:13] Shane Legg’s grainy 2009 prophecy — and the nervous giggle.
  • [00:13:11] Ilya Sutskever burns an effigy.
  • [00:13:54] Demis at 4 a.m., hunting God’s algorithm.
  • [00:18:43] Super-abundance, Mad Max, and the China shock lesson.
  • [00:22:39] The kitchen debate with Geoff Hinton that flipped Sebastian.
  • [00:24:06] Why a zero-percent chance of doom is indefensible.
  • [00:24:52] Will Washington seize the labs? The Mythos wake-up call.
  • [00:27:18] Anthropic’s bull case, bear case, and a dead parent’s letter.
  • [00:33:24] Where Sebastian and Benedict Evans part ways.
  • [00:38:16] Is the SaaS apocalypse overdone? One word: Palantir.
  • [00:39:53] The AI friend you’ll never switch.
  • [00:41:56] Does Google win consumer AI by default?
  • [00:44:45] Four cities, eight days: China actually talks safety.
  • [00:47:28] A Cold War non-proliferation playbook for AI.
  • [00:49:45] Did the chip export controls actually work?
  • [00:51:49] Burned doves: why Washington swears China won’t talk.
  • [00:54:56] “By 2028, the race is over” — one lab boss’ bet.
  • [00:59:11] Inside Hikvision: toddlers, sensors, and US sanctions.
  • [01:01:07] Bill Gurley’s Uber bet: venture capital perfected.
  • [01:05:18] Luke Nosek bear-hugs DeepMind into existence.
  • [01:10:52] Thiel’s heresy: never invest by committee.
  • [01:11:59] How Founders Fund nearly fumbled the deal of the century.
  • [01:14:30] Selling to Google for $650M: a secret British heist?
  • [01:16:41] The Traitorous Eight, gardening leave, and the UK’s to-do list.
  • [01:20:55] Ender’s Game: “That’s really how I see myself.”
  • [01:23:42] Too dumb for Gödel, Escher, Bach? Maybe an LLM can help.
  • [01:25:19] If not Demis or Sam, then Dario.
  • [01:26:04] My royalties cliff — and what dropped in late 2022.
  • [01:27:47] Lila Sciences and the labs that run themselves.
  • [01:31:13] Sebastian’s billboard: “Prepare your mind.”
  • [01:35:14] The one thing Sebastian will never outsource to AI.
  • [01:40:09] Parting thoughts.

Sebastian Mallaby Quotes from the Interview

“These machines will be smarter than us. They will want to survive and they can be deceptive, they can obfuscate, they can go behind your back, pretend they’re doing one thing and then actually do another. All of this has been shown in all the tests of the models. And so we put those things together, I think your probability of doom cannot be zero.”

— Sebastian Mallaby

“For humans, to contemplate annihilation is absurd and the absurd is a close cousin of humor.”

— Sebastian Mallaby

“All through this topic there is this religious expression because religion is the lexicon for dealing with something that we find too mysterious to really understand.”

— Sebastian Mallaby

“I think any reasonable person should be both excited and a bit frightened, and that’s just the nature of it. It sounds contradictory, but actually, that’s the only rational response.”

— Sebastian Mallaby

“We only need to be ahead for the next couple of years, because by 2028 we will get to recursive self-improvement, where the frontier model codes, by itself, the next frontier model, and progress just goes vertical, and at that point with recursive self-improvement, we’re done. The race is over. Whoever comes first at that point, that’s it.”

— Sebastian Mallaby

Related Episode

Want to hear another conversation with a legendary investor mapping the AI race and the US–China contest? Listen to my conversation with Benchmark general partner Bill Gurley, in which we discussed the AI bubble debate, circular deals and SPV chaos, angel investing in the AI era, his ten-day deep dive across six Chinese cities, the Xiaomi SU7 factory tour, Lei Jun as “the Steve Jobs of China,” America vs. China (lawyers vs. engineers), regulatory capture, why the IPO market is broken, stablecoins putting Visa and Mastercard on notice, and much more.

This episode is brought to you by AG1! I get asked all the time, “If you could use only one supplement, what would it be?” My answer is usually AG1, my all-in-one nutritional insurance. I recommended it in The 4-Hour Body in 2010 and did not get paid to do so. Right now, get a FREE Welcome Kit, including Vitamin D3+K2 and AG1 Flavor Sampler, when you first subscribe. Visit DrinkAG1.com/Tim to claim this special offer today and receive your 1-year supply of Vitamin D—a vital nutrient for a strong immune system and strong bones!

This episode is brought to you by Eight Sleep. Temperature is one of the main causes of poor sleep, and heat is my personal nemesis. But a few years ago, I started using the Pod Cover, and it has transformed my sleep. Eight Sleep has launched their newest generation of the Pod: Pod 5 Ultra. It cools, it heats, and now it elevates, automatically. With the best temperature performance to date, Pod 5 Ultra ensures you and your partner stay cool in the heat and cozy warm in the cold. And now, listeners of The Tim Ferriss Show can get $400 off of the Pod 5 Ultra for a limited time! Click here to claim this deal and unlock your full potential through optimal sleep.

This episode is brought to you by Wealthfront! Wealthfront is a financial services platform that offers services to help you save and invest your money. Right now, your cash can earn 3.30% APY—that’s the Annual Percentage Yield—with the Wealthfront Cash Account from its network of program banks. That’s 8 times more interest than a typical savings account at a bank, according to FDIC.gov as of 1/22/2026 (Wealthfront’s 3.30% APY vs. 0.39% average savings rate). Right now, for a limited time, Wealthfront is offering new clients that use my sign-up link an additional 0.75% boost over the base rate for three months, meaning you can get up to 4.05% APY, limited to $150,000 in deposits. Terms & Conditions apply. Visit Wealthfront.com/Tim to get started. 

The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC (“WFB”), member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The 3.30% Base APY on cash deposits is as of January 30, 2026, is representative, subject to change, and requires no minimum balance. The overall boosted rate is subject to change if the base rate decreases during the three-month promotional period. Tim Ferriss, who’s not a client, receives cash compensation from Wealthfront Brokerage LLC for advertising and holds a non-controlling equity interest in the corporate parent of Wealthfront Brokerage LLC, which creates an incentive that results in a conflict of interest. Tim expresses his own opinions and Wealthfront does not endorse, sponsor, or promote them. This ad may not reflect the experience of other Cash Account clients, and similar outcomes are not guaranteed. Investment advisory services are provided by Wealthfront Advisers LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Securities investments: not bank deposits, not bank-guaranteed or FDIC-insured, and may lose value. See full disclosures here. 

Subscribe
Notify of
guest

Comment Rules: Remember what Fonzie was like? Cool. That's how we're gonna be — cool. Critical is fine, but if you're rude, we'll delete your stuff. Please do not put your URL in the comment text and please use your PERSONAL name or initials and not your business name, as the latter comes off like spam. Have fun and thanks for adding to the conversation! (Thanks to Brian Oberkirch for the inspiration.)

0 Comments

New!

Coyote

A card game by Tim Ferriss and Exploding Kittens

COYOTE is an addictive card game of hilarity, high-fives, and havoc! Learn it in minutes, and each game lasts around 10 minutes.

For ages 10 and up (though I’ve seen six-year olds play) and three or more players, think of it as group rock, paper, scissors with many surprise twists, including the ability to sabotage other players. Viral videos of COYOTE have been watched more than 250 million times, and it’s just getting started.

Unleash your trickster spirit with a game that’s simple to learn, hard to master, and delightfully different every time you play. May the wit and wiles be with you!

Learn More

Keep exploring.